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Deal-seeking consumers, an expanding holiday season, and a focus on omnichannel experiences are changing the way retailers meet shoppers’ expectations
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Retail and ecommerce comprise the buying of goods from a brand or retailer either at a brick-and-mortar location or online. And both sectors are in the midst of major transitions.
Key stat: In 2024, EMARKETER forecasts US retail sales to reach $7.450 trillion, a 2.8% increase YoY. Physical retail accounts for 83.7% of those sales, but ecommerce sales are growing faster than physical retail sales (8.2% versus 1.8%, respectively).
This overview offers a valuable starting point for better understanding retail and ecommerce. It highlights key trends, forecasts, and the major players in the space, and offers key definitions and guides to help retailers and marketers go deeper into where consumers discover, buy, and receive products.
Ecommerce is retail that occurs digitally. That can be on a brand’s website or mobile app, through a social media platform like TikTok Shop or Facebook Marketplace, or digital marketplace like Amazon or Shopify.
It’s important to note that the location of pickup does not determine if a purchase classifies as physical retail or ecommerce. For example, click and collect is a growing part of ecommerce, particularly in digital grocery, where consumers order and pay online and then pick up their orders at a physical retail location, either curbside or inside the store with buy online, pick up in store.
According to EMARKETER, several key trends are currently shaping the retail and ecommerce industry:
Focus on omnichannel experiences: Consumers’ shopping journeys aren’t linear. They search, discover, and shop for products across digital and physical channels. That’s particularly true of Gen Z, who turn to social media for product discovery, mainly for beauty, clothing, and health and personal care products. That means retailers must deliver seamless and integrated messaging across social media, apps, websites, and in-store.
Consumers shop for deals: Inflation, recession fears, and economic concerns have turned shoppers into deal-seekers. Walmart, for example, has added shoppers from higher-income levels, while Conagra lowered prices and added products to attract consumers looking to save money by shopping at home. Consumers felt some of the biggest economic impact in grocery, leading them to say that price was the top factor (83%) when picking a US grocery store, per January 2024 data from Progressive Grocer.
The retail holiday season lengthens: This deal-seeking has led customers to start holiday shopping earlier, with almost 50% of shoppers beginning in September to lock in deals and avoid the holiday rush, per a Celigo survey. In addition, 77% said value and cost-cutting options would be holiday shopping priorities . Also helping lengthen the season is Amazon’s addition of a fall Prime Big Deal Days, and competing retailers’ joining with fall events of their own.
The importance of data, loyalty, and membership programs: These programs help retailers maintain current customers and find new ones, but they are also a way to collect vast consumer data that can be used for marketing and advertising. Well-known paid membership programs include Amazon Prime and Walmart+. Target launched its paid membership, Target Circle, in April 2024. Consumers receive discounts, free shipping, and other perks through retailers’ loyalty and membership programs.
The growth of retail media: The data retailers collect helps power their retail media advertising businesses. Retail media will be the fastest-growing ad channel in the US in 2024, rising 26.0% to reach nearly $55 billion in ad spend, per our forecast. By 2027, that number will exceed $100 billion.
The importance of social commerce: As people spend more time on social media, their shopping patterns have also shifted to the networks. Facebook Marketplace has the most social commerce buyers, but the introduction of TikTok Shop has appealed to Gen Z shoppers.
The top 15 ecommerce retailers in the US will account for more than $800 billion in sales, we forecast. Once again, Amazon will be the leader, bringing in a projected $491.65 billion in ecommerce sales in the US. Walmart Inc. is a distant second, at $94.38 billion, but we forecast it will have the largest ecommerce growth of the top 15 retailers in ecommerce sales, at 13.6 %.
The rest of the top 15 ecommerce companies, by US sales in 2024, are Apple, eBay, The Home Depot, Target, Costco, The Kroger Co., Best Buy, Chewy, Wayfair, Lowe’s, Carvana, Macy’s Inc., Etsy Inc., and Curate Retail Group (including QVC and HSN), EMARKETER forecasts.
Here are some resources to help you understand discovery patterns better:
Loyalty: Retailers use these programs to maintain current customers and find new ones. Discounts are the top thing consumers want from loyalty programs.
Digitally native vertical brands (DNVBs): Brands that sell products entirely through digital channels with no brick-and-mortar presence. Also known as digital-only brands.
Digital grocery: One of the fastest-growing ecommerce channels in the US, consumers can buy groceries for delivery and click-and-collect. Digital grocery will make up nearly 14% of total US grocery sales in 2024.
Holiday retail: Retailers’ biggest sales time of the year, this time frame is expanding to begin as early as September. We forecast that total retail sales for the 2024 holiday season will reach $1.372 trillion, growing 4.8% YoY.
Here are some resources exploring topics that influence purchasing:
Livestreaming: The real-time broadcasting of audio and video over the internet where watchers can purchase products displayed. Livestreaming hasn’t caught on in the US like it has in China but several players, including TikTok, hope to change that.
Retail technology: Includes the software and tech that helps retailers with day-to-day operations, such as digital wallets, AR and VR, and demand forecasting.
Mobile commerce: Purchasing goods through a mobile device. Social commerce often takes place via mcommerce, as consumers often browse social media networks on their smartphones. Mcommerce will make up 44.6% of total US retail sales in 2024.
Social commerce: Purchasing products through social media channels like Facebook Marketplace, TikTok Shop, or YouTube. US social commerce sales will claim 6.6% of total ecommerce sales in 2024.
Buy now, pay later (BNPL): This payment method allows consumers to purchase products and pay them off over time, often in monthly installments. In 2024, total BNPL spending in the US will grow 12.3% YoY to $80.77 billion, according to our July 2023 forecast. Offering a BNPL can entice purchases, particularly during the holiday season.
Finally, these resources will help you understand trends in delivery.
Last mile delivery: This is the last step in the delivery process where customers receive their orders.
Drone delivery: The use of drones to deliver packages to customers. This is a form of last-mile delivery.
D2C: This model allows brands and retailers to send products directly to consumers, without the need for wholesalers, third-party manufacturers, and distributors.
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