A new Forrester forecast is bullish on e-commerce’s growth trajectory during the next four years.
Total global online retail sales will grow to $6.8 trillion by 2028 from $4.4 trillion in 2023, representing an 8.9% compound annual growth rate, according to the Forrester “Global Retail E-commerce Forecast 2024 to 2028” report. In the U.S., online retail sales are expected to reach $1.6 trillion by 2028, accounting for 28% of total U.S. retail sales.
E-commerce is more mature in the U.S. compared to Canada, with Forrester predicting Canadian online retail sales will reach $83 billion by 2028. Forrester says that Canada lags the U.S. in e-commerce penetration due to lower population density, a smaller market size, and slower consumer adoption.
Despite overall growth in e-commerce, 76% (or $21.9 trillion) of global retail sales will still occur offline in 2028, including $4.2 trillion in the U.S., according to Forrester. As a result, the report advises retailers to continue investing in omnichannel strategies that provide a seamless shopping experience both online and offline.
The report further states that retail e-commerce maturity varies globally. Advanced economies including the U.S., U.K. and South Korea are more mature due to higher internet penetration and digital literacy.
As smartphone adoption and mobile commerce become more widespread, however, Forrester advises that emerging markets in Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe and Latin America are catching up, presenting new e-commerce opportunities for businesses and consumers.
Global highlights
“The growth of online marketplaces, social commerce, livestream selling, and direct-to-consumer commerce will accelerate global online retail sales growth over the next five years,” said Jitender Miglani, principal forecast analyst at Forrester. “However, e-commerce maturity and growth opportunities vary vastly by region. Retailers and brands must therefore have a thorough understanding of the key drivers of retail and e-commerce growth in their priority markets and tailor their strategies appropriately, to succeed.”
[Read more: Global e-commerce revenue to hit record-breaking $3.64T in 2024]
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